您的当前位置:首页 > 白银TD > Bitfinex report: Market volatility will intensify, Bitcoin is expected to hit new highs after US election 正文
时间:2025-05-19 03:21:42 来源:网络整理 编辑:白银TD
Bitfinex,thecryptocurrencyexchange,saidinareportreleasedonMondaythattheuncertaintyoftheUSelection,th
Bitfinex, the cryptocurrency exchange, said in a report released on Monday that the uncertainty of the US election, the "Trump Trading" narrative and seasonal factors in the fourth quarter created a "perfect storm" for Bitcoin, and the market is preparing for possible turbulence. Analysts believe that given the steady growth of Bitcoin call options and favorable seasonal factors in the fourth quarter, Bitcoin may break through a historic high of $73666 after the US election.
Bitfinex's report pointed out that due to geopolitical uncertainty, macroeconomic factors and the increasingly strong narrative of "Trump trade", the volatility of Bitcoin has increased. Last week, Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline of 6.2% before rebounding. This pullback highlights the growing impact of the upcoming U.S. presidential election on recent prices. The market generally believes that the Republican Party's victory over Bitcoin and other risky assets is beneficial. The correlation between Trump's chances of being elected and Bitcoin's upward trend has been strengthened.
On the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket, users believe that the probability of Trump winning has risen to 66.3%, while He Jinli has dropped to 33.7%.
Bitfinex analysts continued to discuss the trading situation in the Bitcoin options market, pointing out that high implied volatility suggests that market volatility may increase in the next two weeks.
The expectation surrounding the election has stimulated a surge in option activity, with options expiring on key days before and after the election being traded at higher premiums, and implied volatility expected to peak at a daily volatility of 100 on November 8th (i.e. after election day) - indicating that the market is preparing for potential volatility
Analysts say that regardless of the outcome of the US election, Bitcoin's short-term volatility is expected to be higher than usual, while in the long run, Bitfinex continues to hold a bullish attitude towards Bitcoin.
The Bitfinex report also identified favorable seasonal factors for Bitcoin. Based on past history, Bitcoin typically performs strongly in the fourth quarter after a six-month decline, with a median quarterly return of 31.34%. Analysts suggest that this strong seasonal effect, combined with record breaking open interest in options and futures, reflects market participants' optimism towards the year-end phase and may drive Bitcoin to a historic high.
The report states, "Supporting this optimism is the steady growth of call options expiring on December 27th, particularly concentrated at the strike price of $80000. As open options contracts climb to new highs, the market is showing signs of laying out for a post election rally, which could push Bitcoin closer to or even beyond its historical high of $73666
个人所得税为什么会有退税2025-05-19 06:38
比原链交易所2025-05-19 06:33
ndn上交易所时间2025-05-19 06:31
人人贷必须使用民生银行卡吗?不是民生银行的卡可不可以绑定在人人贷上啊?2025-05-19 06:20
加密货币如何交易2025-05-19 06:16
公积金网上补缴流程-公积金网上补缴流程图2025-05-19 05:48
汇算清缴要冲递延所得税吗2025-05-19 05:23
PA日报 | Vitalik发文详解以太坊The Verge阶段的关键目标;美SEC将加密货币纳入2025年审查重点清单2025-05-19 05:18
比特币钱包原理2025-05-19 04:56
苏州公积金怎么注册2025-05-19 04:30
比特币价格20092025-05-19 06:02
招联好期贷上的借款一般什么时候扣款呢?2025-05-19 05:40
ETH突破1900美元关口,24小时涨幅超4%2025-05-19 05:35
今年什么时候立秋啊-今年什么时候立秋啊?2025-05-19 05:30
ai16z被a16z合伙人点名带火,背后发行平台daos.fun主打面向MEME市场的DAO风投2025-05-19 05:19
4月30日关键市场信息差,一定要看!|Alpha早报2025-05-19 05:18
酒店会计科目及账务处理2025-05-19 05:05
全资子公司抵消分录是什么2025-05-19 04:59
比特币为什么这么火2025-05-19 04:26
同事生日送什么2025-05-19 04:12