您的当前位置:首页 > 白银TD > Bitfinex report: Market volatility will intensify, Bitcoin is expected to hit new highs after US election 正文
时间:2025-07-15 11:01:42 来源:网络整理 编辑:白银TD
Bitfinex,thecryptocurrencyexchange,saidinareportreleasedonMondaythattheuncertaintyoftheUSelection,th
Bitfinex, the cryptocurrency exchange, said in a report released on Monday that the uncertainty of the US election, the "Trump Trading" narrative and seasonal factors in the fourth quarter created a "perfect storm" for Bitcoin, and the market is preparing for possible turbulence. Analysts believe that given the steady growth of Bitcoin call options and favorable seasonal factors in the fourth quarter, Bitcoin may break through a historic high of $73666 after the US election.
Bitfinex's report pointed out that due to geopolitical uncertainty, macroeconomic factors and the increasingly strong narrative of "Trump trade", the volatility of Bitcoin has increased. Last week, Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline of 6.2% before rebounding. This pullback highlights the growing impact of the upcoming U.S. presidential election on recent prices. The market generally believes that the Republican Party's victory over Bitcoin and other risky assets is beneficial. The correlation between Trump's chances of being elected and Bitcoin's upward trend has been strengthened.
On the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket, users believe that the probability of Trump winning has risen to 66.3%, while He Jinli has dropped to 33.7%.
Bitfinex analysts continued to discuss the trading situation in the Bitcoin options market, pointing out that high implied volatility suggests that market volatility may increase in the next two weeks.
The expectation surrounding the election has stimulated a surge in option activity, with options expiring on key days before and after the election being traded at higher premiums, and implied volatility expected to peak at a daily volatility of 100 on November 8th (i.e. after election day) - indicating that the market is preparing for potential volatility
Analysts say that regardless of the outcome of the US election, Bitcoin's short-term volatility is expected to be higher than usual, while in the long run, Bitfinex continues to hold a bullish attitude towards Bitcoin.
The Bitfinex report also identified favorable seasonal factors for Bitcoin. Based on past history, Bitcoin typically performs strongly in the fourth quarter after a six-month decline, with a median quarterly return of 31.34%. Analysts suggest that this strong seasonal effect, combined with record breaking open interest in options and futures, reflects market participants' optimism towards the year-end phase and may drive Bitcoin to a historic high.
The report states, "Supporting this optimism is the steady growth of call options expiring on December 27th, particularly concentrated at the strike price of $80000. As open options contracts climb to new highs, the market is showing signs of laying out for a post election rally, which could push Bitcoin closer to or even beyond its historical high of $73666
如何查看QQ,从基础操作到高级技巧_如何查看qq2025-07-15 11:40
派币今日价格 6月26日派币实时价格走势图2025-07-15 11:10
上海禾数软件-上海数禾公司怎样2025-07-15 10:59
pi币稳定版下载官网 pi币官网软件下载最新2025-07-15 10:53
比特币的价格今日价格2025-07-15 10:17
FRAM (FRAM)怎么买?FRAM (FRAM)在哪里买卖交易?2025-07-15 10:10
正规数字货币交易平台app交易所中国版下载 正规数字货币交易平台app交易所安卓下载入口2025-07-15 10:00
国际网络平台排行榜_前十名香港国际网络平台安卓榜单2025-07-15 09:53
多少人用比特币2025-07-15 09:49
区块链软件app有哪些?高效性的btcapp排名合集2025-07-15 09:41
悠悠跑,慢跑中的养生智慧_悠悠跑是如何跑2025-07-15 11:45
天气干燥喝什么茶最好-天气干燥喝什么茶最好呢2025-07-15 11:34
全球最大数字货币交易平台排行2025-07-15 10:59
5招教你打败人性弱点_如何克服人性的弱点2025-07-15 10:50
币安交易所注册下载教程(2025年最新币安注册入门详细教程)2025-07-15 10:17
百度有钱花教育分期的利息是多少?家庭条件不好,想申请教育分期交学费。2025-07-15 10:02
虚拟币交易app排行_全球十大虚拟币应用排名20252025-07-15 09:48
币赢交易所app官网下载_币赢交易所最新下载安装20232025-07-15 09:47
比特币交易软件排行榜 比特币软件排行榜2025-07-15 09:31
小花钱包还完后可以再借吗?2025-07-15 09:16